In this guide
With the 2028 US presidential election still more than two years off, prediction markets are already actively pricing candidates across both parties, from Republican succession scenarios to Democratic primary matchups. Traders who spot mispriced positions early can capitalise before the candidate field consolidates and liquidity shifts.
Republican 2028 Presidential Market
Trump's constitutional ineligibility for a third term has opened the Republican field considerably:
- J.D. Vance: ~25-30% — Sitting VP with Trump endorsement, structural advantage
- Ron DeSantis: ~15-20% — Florida governor with strong approval ratings, recovery narrative from 2024
- Nikki Haley: ~12-15% — Centrist positioning, established foreign policy credentials
- Glenn Youngkin: ~7-10% — Two-term Virginia executive, entrepreneurial track record
- Josh Hawley: ~5-8% — Pro-worker, anti-establishment messaging
- Unknown candidate: ~15-20% — Sufficient breadth in the field to accommodate surprise entrants
Democratic 2028 Presidential Market
- Kamala Harris: ~20-25% — Presumptive favourite with party machinery backing
- Pete Buttigieg: ~12-15% — Cabinet-level prominence as Transportation Secretary
- Gavin Newsom: ~10-13% — Major state executive with significant media presence
- Josh Shapiro: ~8-12% — Competitive state governor from Pennsylvania
- Unknown candidate: ~25-30% — Timeline allows room for emerging political figures
2028 General Election Probabilities
- Republican wins presidency 2028: ~48-52% (near parity given the extended timeframe)
- Democrat wins presidency 2028: ~48-52%
Why Trade 2028 Markets Now
Engaging with 2028 markets at this stage provides:
- Elevated volatility stemming from genuine uncertainty, creating asymmetric payoff opportunities
- Extended holding periods allowing positions to mature as fresh data emerges
- Chance to accumulate exposure to candidates before headline-driven repricing occurs
Drawback: nascent markets react sharply to surprises and candidate announcements, introducing timing risk.
FAQ
- Can a sitting VP (Vance) win the Republican nomination?
- Precedent is mixed: sitting VPs have secured nominations (Bush Sr following Reagan in 1988) whilst others have faltered (Gore's 2000 loss). Current prediction market pricing reflects Vance as the leading contender without overwhelming dominance.
- When do 2028 nomination markets resolve?
- Nomination outcomes crystallise following each party's summer convention — anticipated for July or August 2028.
- Are there markets for specific primary states?
- State-level primary markets, including Iowa and New Hampshire contests, typically become available between 6 and 12 months prior to voting — consult PolyGram's political markets hub for current offerings.