In this guide
Verdict: Polymarket dominates in terms of trading depth and breadth of available contracts. Kalshi offers the sole regulatory pathway for American participants. Manifold delivers entertainment-focused forecasting without financial stakes. Across Europe and beyond, Polymarket accessed through PolyGram represents the optimal choice.
Prediction markets have surged in adoption throughout 2024 and into 2025. This comparison examines how the sector's major venues stack up against one another.
Polymarket — The Liquidity Leader
| Liquidity | $1.5B+ annual volume. Most substantial order books across political and digital-asset categories |
| Markets | 1,000+ live contracts spanning politics, digital assets, athletics, scientific outcomes, entertainment |
| Fees | No platform fee. Bid-ask spreads range from 1–3 cents |
| Currency | USDC denominated, settled on Polygon network (blockchain wallet required) |
| Access | Worldwide availability excluding US jurisdictions. Identity verification mandatory |
| Best for | Professional traders leveraging analytical advantages |
Kalshi — US-Regulated Alternative
Kalshi stands as the exclusive CFTC-authorised prediction venue available to US residents. It serves American participants who cannot access Polymarket and has experienced substantial expansion. Trade-offs include narrower contract selection relative to Polymarket, with regulatory constraints limiting which prediction categories may be offered.
Manifold Markets — Social Prediction
Manifold operates using fictional currency ("mana") instead of actual funds. This platform excels for honing forecasting abilities and collaborative community prediction — unsuitable for those seeking monetary returns. The ecosystem hosts more than 10,000 user-generated prediction contracts.
Metaculus — Forecasting Platform
Metaculus collects and synthesises probabilistic assessments from its forecaster community. Real capital is not involved, yet it remains valuable for establishing prediction credentials and evaluating international and security-related forecasts. Academic institutions frequently reference its methodology when studying forecast performance.
Betfair — The Legacy Exchange
Betfair represents the pioneering peer-to-peer wagering platform, processing hundreds of billions across sports and electoral markets annually. Strengths include traditional currency support, FCA authorisation, and substantial sports contract depth. Limitations encompass 2-5% commission structure on net gains, absence of blockchain-based markets, and comparatively sparse political contract inventory versus Polymarket.
Our Recommendation for 2025
For participants outside the US seeking maximum trading liquidity and contract diversity: Polymarket via PolyGram. PolyGram streamlines blockchain technicalities whilst preserving full access to Polymarket's comprehensive order books. Explore the Polymarket guide or begin trading on PolyGram →