In this guide
Key takeaway: Polymarket is a decentralised prediction market where traders buy YES/NO shares on real-world events using USDC on the Polygon blockchain. Smart contracts handle all settlements automatically.
How does Polymarket work? Fundamentally, Polymarket functions as a prediction marketplace: rather than wagering against a bookmaker's built-in edge, you transact directly with other participants who hold opposing views on an outcome. The market price continuously reflects what the broader community believes the probability is — shifting instantly as fresh information emerges.
The basics: prediction markets
In a prediction market, you acquire shares representing a particular outcome. Each share is worth $1 upon a YES resolution, or nothing if the event resolves NO. Purchasing a YES share for 40 cents ($0.40) signals your belief that the event has a 40% likelihood of occurring. A correct prediction means your capital doubles. An incorrect one results in forfeiting your investment.
Polymarket differs from conventional sportsbooks in that it operates without a built-in house margin (the "vig"). Participants themselves determine pricing through their collective buying and selling activity.
How Polymarket uses blockchain
Polymarket operates atop the Polygon blockchain (a layer-2 scaling solution for Ethereum). This architecture delivers several advantages:
- Every transaction remains visible and auditable via the distributed ledger
- Automated smart contracts govern account funding, order execution, and prize distribution
- Polymarket operators cannot seize assets or alter settlement outcomes
- Funds are released within minutes rather than waiting days for clearance
USDC: the currency of Polymarket
Polymarket exclusively accepts USDC (USD Coin), a stablecoin maintaining a fixed 1:1 exchange rate with the US dollar. Your trading balance remains insulated from cryptocurrency price swings — one USDC perpetually equals one dollar.
How markets resolve
Once an event's outcome becomes public knowledge, Polymarket leverages the UMA Oracle (Universal Market Access) to finalise market settlements. An outcome is first proposed; traders then have 2 hours to challenge it; if no objection materialises, the resolution becomes binding. Should a dispute arise, UMA token holders participate in a decentralised vote to determine the correct outcome.
Getting started on Polymarket
- Create an account — register via email and satisfy identity verification requirements
- Deposit USDC — transfer funds through MoonPay, traditional banking, or your existing cryptocurrency holdings
- Browse markets — explore elections, athletics, blockchain developments, entertainment and beyond
- Buy shares — select YES or NO and specify your investment amount
- Track and exit — liquidate your holdings whenever you choose prior to market closure
PolyGram streamlines this workflow through an intuitive mobile-optimised platform and straightforward email authentication. Start trading on PolyGram →
Why Polymarket prices are accurate
Prediction markets have repeatedly demonstrated superior forecasting performance relative to conventional surveys and specialist commentary. Throughout the 2024 US election cycle, Polymarket's probability assessments surpassed the precision of leading polling organisations. The mechanism behind this accuracy: financial incentives compel participants to make genuine, well-reasoned forecasts rather than speculative guesses.