Claude Mythos released on…?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Anthropic has not yet released a model officially named or designated as "Claude Mythos" to the general public. The market currently prices this event at 0% on Polygon-based conditional tokens, reflecting trader consensus that no such release will occur before the 30 June 2026 settlement window closes. Any public availability—whether via API, web interface, or direct download—of a model bearing the Mythos designation would trigger resolution, provided Anthropic uses that name or explicitly classifies it as a "Mythos-class" model in official communications.

Anthropic's naming convention for large language models has remained stable since 2023, with Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus forming a three-tier product hierarchy. No leaked roadmaps, patent filings, or investor presentations have referenced a "Mythos" model line. Competitors including OpenAI and Google have occasionally introduced models with mythological or classical names (GPT-4 Turbo, Gemini Ultra), but these represent isolated branding choices rather than systematic naming schemes. The absence of any credible signal regarding Mythos development, combined with Anthropic's consistent product nomenclature, underpins the zero probability reflected in current USDC-denominated conditional token pricing.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Anthropic's official announcements, earnings calls, and product roadmap disclosures. The company typically unveils new model releases through its website and blog. Any statement from leadership explicitly naming or describing a forthcoming "Mythos" model would constitute a material catalyst. The settlement window extends through mid-2026, providing eighteen months for such an announcement, though the current market pricing suggests traders assess this outcome as effectively impossible given present information.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.