Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PolyGram Pick polygram.ink |
99% | 1% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on PolyGram → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
99% | 1% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on PolyGram → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on PolyGram → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on PolyGram → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on PolyGram → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on PolyGram.
Active sub-markets
Market context
This market resolves on whether Bitcoin's Binance BTC/USDT pair closes above a specified threshold at noon ET on 26 May 2026. The settlement hinges on a single 1-minute candle at that precise timestamp, making it sensitive to intraday volatility and order-book depth at that exact moment rather than broader directional conviction. Polymarket currently prices this contract at 99% YES, reflecting confidence that Bitcoin will trade above the threshold level at that time. The extreme probability suggests the strike price sits well below consensus expectations for Bitcoin's value in May 2026, or that traders view the execution risk—Binance's API availability, candle data integrity, timezone conversion—as negligible.
Historical precedent shows that Bitcoin's noon ET closes rarely deviate sharply from daily trading ranges, though flash crashes and coordinated liquidations have occasionally created brief dips below support levels. A 99% probability on a single-candle resolution typically indicates the threshold is positioned conservatively, perhaps 5–15% below current forward estimates. Comparable Polymarket Bitcoin contracts with similar timeframes and single-candle mechanics have resolved YES when strike prices reflected realistic downside scenarios, though execution glitches or exchange outages have occasionally triggered disputed resolutions.
Traders should monitor Bitcoin's volatility regime heading into May 2026, particularly any scheduled macroeconomic announcements or Federal Reserve communications that could trigger coordinated selling at noon ET. Binance's operational status and any changes to its API documentation for historical candle data will matter for clean settlement. The USDC settlement on Polygon means traders holding positions should verify bridge liquidity and gas conditions closer to the resolution date.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?
- Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
Trade Bitcoin above 2026 on May 26? on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Trade on PolyGram →