Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PolyGram Pick polygram.ink |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on PolyGram → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on PolyGram → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on PolyGram → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on PolyGram → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on PolyGram → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on PolyGram.
Active sub-markets
| <70,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 70,000-72,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 72,000-74,000 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 74,000-76,000 | 20% YES | 81% NO |
| 76,000-78,000 | 71% YES | 30% NO |
| 78,000-80,000 | 8% YES | 92% NO |
Market context
Bitcoin's noon ET closing price on 24 May 2026 will be determined by the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle at that specific timestamp. The market currently prices this outcome at 0% YES, reflecting either extreme confidence in a particular price bracket or minimal liquidity in this specific settlement window. Traders on Polymarket are staking USDC collateral on Polygon, with conditional tokens representing exposure to whichever price range resolves true. The resolution mechanism is straightforward: Binance's published close price for that candle, with ties resolving to the higher bracket.
Historical Bitcoin price prediction markets show that 18-month forecasts typically exhibit wider probability distributions than shorter-term contracts, yet the 0% reading here suggests the market has already priced in a consensus outcome or the contract has attracted limited participation. When comparable long-dated Bitcoin markets have shown similarly skewed probabilities, they've often reflected either genuine directional conviction among active traders or simply sparse order books that don't yet reflect fair-value pricing across all brackets.
Catalysts shaping Bitcoin's trajectory through May 2026 include regulatory developments from the SEC and CFTC, macroeconomic policy shifts affecting risk appetite, and institutional adoption milestones. The Bitcoin halving cycle—with the next event scheduled for April 2024—historically influences medium-term price expectations. Traders monitoring this market should track Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, geopolitical events affecting safe-haven demand, and any major announcements from large Bitcoin holders or mining operations, all of which could shift the probability distribution substantially before settlement.
Methodology
We track Bitcoin price on May 24? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?
- Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
Trade Bitcoin price on May 24? on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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