Bitcoin price on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's spot price at noon ET on 25 May 2026 will be determined by the closing price of the BTC/USDT 1-minute candle on Binance at that specific moment. The current 0% YES probability reflects the market's assessment that Bitcoin will trade below the lowest bracket threshold at that time, though the exact price levels defining each bracket remain unspecified in the available market documentation. Settlement hinges on Binance's official 1m candle data, with ties resolving to the higher bracket.

Historical Bitcoin price movements over comparable 18-month windows show volatility typically ranging between 30–150% from any given starting point, making precise noon-hour predictions inherently uncertain. The May 2024–May 2025 period saw Bitcoin trade from roughly $42,000 to $70,000, demonstrating how macroeconomic shifts, regulatory announcements, and institutional adoption patterns can reshape price discovery across extended timeframes. The 0% probability assigned to YES outcomes suggests traders are pricing in either an exceptionally low bracket threshold or treating the contract as a technical edge case.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Federal Reserve policy signals, spot ETF flows, and major cryptocurrency regulatory developments through 2025 and into May 2026. Bitcoin's correlation with equity markets and real yields has strengthened since 2023, making broader economic data—particularly inflation prints and interest rate expectations—material to price direction. Geopolitical events affecting energy markets and mining operations, alongside any significant protocol upgrades or institutional custody announcements, could shift probabilities materially as the settlement date approaches.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.