Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Anthropic released Claude Fable 5 on 9 June 2026, then suspended US customer access three days later following a government directive. The market prices restoration by 2 July 2026 at 1% on Polygon, with USDC settlement conditional on whether the company reinstates the model under its original name or the confirmed alias "Claude Mythos" within the specified window. That compressed timeframe—roughly three weeks from suspension to deadline—reflects the structural difficulty of reversing a government-mandated restriction through standard corporate channels.

Prior US technology suspensions offer limited precedent for rapid reversal. The TikTok restriction in January 2025 remained unresolved for months despite court challenges and legislative proposals. Conversely, some export controls on semiconductor technology have been modified within weeks following industry lobbying and diplomatic negotiation, though those typically involve regulatory reinterpretation rather than full policy reversal. The 1% probability suggests traders view government directives as durable once issued, particularly when framed as national security matters rather than trade disputes.

Traders should monitor announcements from Anthropic's leadership regarding the suspension rationale, any public statements from US officials clarifying the directive's scope, and congressional activity that might signal legislative pressure for reversal. The settlement window's proximity to the Fourth of July recess could compress the window for political action. Anthropic's own communications—whether framing this as temporary compliance or permanent repositioning—will signal management's intent to pursue restoration. Any court filings challenging the directive's legality would represent a material catalyst, though such proceedings typically exceed the market's three-week horizon.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.