Bitcoin above ___ on May 10?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market settles on Bitcoin's noon ET price on 10 May 2026 according to Binance's BTC/USDT 1-minute candle. The 0% crowd probability reflects either an extremely high strike price relative to current spot, or minimal liquidity and trader participation in this specific contract. On Polymarket, the position trades as conditional tokens on Polygon, backed by USDC collateral, with settlement determined by Binance's published candle data at the specified timestamp.

Bitcoin's intraday volatility at fixed timestamps has historically ranged between 2–8% on daily moves, though noon ET specifically carries no particular significance as a price inflection point. Comparable single-candle resolution markets show that precise timestamp bets require either directional conviction on broader market moves or tactical positioning around known volatility windows. The current zero probability suggests traders either view the strike as unreachable given macro conditions, or the contract lacks sufficient order book depth to attract meaningful positions.

Catalysts through May 2026 remain uncertain at this distance, though historical patterns show Bitcoin responds to Federal Reserve policy signals, macroeconomic data releases, and regulatory announcements. Traders monitoring this contract should track broader bitcoin spot prices relative to the strike level as the settlement date approaches, and note that Binance's candle close—not intraday wicks or other exchanges—determines the outcome. Liquidity conditions on the market itself may shift substantially as May 2026 nears, potentially allowing better pricing discovery.

Methodology

This page reviews Bitcoin above ___ on May 10? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.