Bitcoin above ___ on May 16?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market settles on Bitcoin's Binance BTC/USDT closing price at noon Eastern Time on 16 May 2026, a specific one-minute candle that will determine whether the contract resolves YES or NO. The 0% crowd probability reflects either an extremely high strike price relative to current Bitcoin valuations, or minimal liquidity and trader participation in this particular contract. On Polymarket, the market operates as conditional tokens on Polygon, with USDC collateral backing both YES and NO positions; the current pricing suggests traders assess the specified price level as effectively unreachable under baseline scenarios.

Historical Bitcoin price action provides limited direct precedent for predicting noon-specific closes eighteen months forward, though intraday volatility at major exchanges typically ranges 1–3% during regular trading hours. Bitcoin's behaviour around macroeconomic announcements, Federal Reserve communications, and regulatory developments has historically driven larger moves, though these occur unpredictably. The May 2026 window falls outside any announced major event cycle, reducing near-term catalysts for extreme price movements.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Bitcoin's medium-term trend trajectory, any significant shifts in institutional adoption or regulatory stance, and Binance's operational status. Spot price discovery on Binance BTC/USDT remains sensitive to broader cryptocurrency market sentiment, leverage positioning, and macro risk-off events. The settlement mechanism's reliance on a single one-minute candle introduces execution risk; liquidity conditions at precisely noon ET on that date could affect the close price independently of broader market conditions.

Methodology

We track Bitcoin above ___ on May 16? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.