Bitcoin price on June 11?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's noon ET price on 11 June 2026 will be determined by the closing value of the BTC/USDT 1-minute candle on Binance at that precise moment. The market currently prices this outcome at 0% YES, reflecting the inherent difficulty in pinpointing exact price levels nearly eighteen months forward. Settlement hinges on Binance's published candle data, with ties resolving to the higher bracket—a detail that matters for positions staked near bracket boundaries. On Polymarket, this contract trades as a conditional token pair on Polygon, with positions denominated in USDC and backed by the platform's standard dispute resolution mechanism.

Historical Bitcoin price prediction markets show that long-dated contracts rarely sustain extreme probability skews unless fundamental catalysts are priced in. Six-month and twelve-month Bitcoin price brackets typically see modest clustering around technical resistance levels and round numbers, though volatility regimes shift sharply around Federal Reserve policy announcements and macroeconomic data releases. The 0% reading here likely reflects the market's preference for shorter-dated contracts where price discovery is tighter, rather than conviction that Bitcoin will avoid any particular range by mid-2026.

Traders monitoring this contract should track regulatory developments affecting spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have reshaped price discovery since their US approval in January 2024. Quarterly earnings seasons, central bank communications, and any major institutional custody announcements could shift medium-term volatility expectations. The specific noon ET timestamp creates a dependency on US market hours rather than 24-hour crypto trading, potentially introducing liquidity or gap-risk considerations absent from perpetual futures markets.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.