Bitcoin price on May 10?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market settles on the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close at noon ET on 10 May 2026, roughly eighteen months from now. The 0% implied probability reflects the contract's current illiquidity and the extreme difficulty of pricing Bitcoin's spot price at a specific timestamp nearly two years forward. On Polymarket, this conditional token trades against USDC on Polygon, meaning positions require collateral locked across the settlement window. The spread between bid and ask is likely substantial given the time horizon and specificity of the resolution criteria.

Historical Bitcoin price prediction markets show that longer-dated contracts typically trade at wider probability distributions than shorter-dated ones, with volatility expectations compressing nearer to settlement. A 2024 study of cryptocurrency derivatives noted that six-month Bitcoin price forecasts carried standard errors exceeding 15% of spot price, suggesting eighteen-month forecasts face even greater uncertainty. The current 0% valuation likely indicates either minimal trading activity or a market consensus that the contract's specificity—requiring an exact candle close rather than daily or weekly prices—makes it an unattractive vehicle for directional Bitcoin exposure.

Traders monitoring this contract should track macroeconomic policy shifts, particularly Federal Reserve rate decisions and inflation data through 2025 and early 2026, as these historically correlate with Bitcoin volatility. Institutional adoption announcements, regulatory developments in major markets, and shifts in on-chain activity metrics will influence longer-term price expectations. The contract's resolution depends entirely on Binance's data availability and candle construction methodology remaining unchanged through May 2026.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.