What price will Bitcoin hit on June 13?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's price action on 13 June 2026 will determine settlement of this contract, with traders on Polymarket currently pricing the probability of hitting an unspecified target price at just 1% through conditional tokens on Polygon. The market's structure—settled in USDC against a predetermined strike level—reflects how traders are weighing the likelihood of a discrete price event occurring within a single trading day roughly eighteen months forward. At present crowd pricing, the market implies either extreme confidence in price stability around current levels or significant uncertainty about which price threshold the contract actually references.

Historical Bitcoin volatility offers limited precedent for predicting single-day price targets two years out. Daily swings of 5–10% occur regularly during normal market conditions, whilst black-swan events have produced 20%+ moves in hours. The 1% probability suggests traders view the specified target as either substantially above or below consensus expectations for mid-2026 Bitcoin valuations. Comparable long-dated crypto derivatives on traditional exchanges typically show wider probability distributions for equivalent timeframes, indicating Polymarket's crowd may be expressing high conviction about directional bias rather than genuine uncertainty.

Catalysts shaping Bitcoin's trajectory through June 2026 include Federal Reserve policy shifts, institutional adoption announcements, and regulatory developments across major jurisdictions. The Bitcoin halving cycle—next scheduled for April 2024—historically influences price expectations across multi-year horizons. Traders monitoring this contract should track macroeconomic data releases, central bank communications, and any legislative changes affecting cryptocurrency custody or trading infrastructure in the United States and European Union.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.