What price will Bitcoin hit on June 7?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's price action on 7 June 2026 will determine settlement of this contract, with the outcome locked in at UTC midnight on 8 June. Polymarket currently prices this outcome at 0% YES, reflecting either extreme confidence in a specific price range or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Traders holding USDC on Polygon can mint conditional tokens representing YES and NO positions, with settlement executed through Polymarket's oracle mechanism once the reference price—typically sourced from major spot exchanges—closes on the settlement date.

Historical precedent suggests Bitcoin's single-day price movements rarely exceed 15–20% under normal market conditions, though volatility spikes during regulatory announcements or macroeconomic shocks. The 0% probability likely indicates the market has already priced in an expected range for that date, leaving little room for the specific price target embedded in the contract's terms. Without visibility on the exact price threshold required for YES settlement, traders should verify the contract's precise strike level against historical daily ranges and current spot prices.

Catalysts between now and June 2026 include Federal Reserve policy decisions, which historically correlate with Bitcoin volatility, alongside any major regulatory developments in the US or EU. Bitcoin's correlation with equity markets has strengthened since 2023, making broader risk-asset sentiment a key monitoring point. Institutional adoption announcements—such as spot ETF expansions or corporate treasury allocations—could shift medium-term price expectations, though single-day moves remain difficult to predict with confidence.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.