What price will Bitcoin hit on May 24?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's price action on 24 May 2026 will determine settlement of this contract, with traders currently pricing a 0% probability of the YES outcome on Polymarket. The settlement window closes on 25 May at 04:00 UTC, giving a narrow window for price discovery. Positions are held as conditional tokens on Polygon, settled in USDC, meaning traders are betting against a specific price threshold being reached during that calendar day—though the exact threshold isn't specified in the market description, which creates ambiguity around what constitutes a YES resolution.

Historical Bitcoin price movements show daily swings of 5–15% are routine during volatile periods, yet the crowd's complete dismissal of this outcome suggests either an extremely high price target or structural factors making the event unlikely. During 2021's bull run, Bitcoin routinely hit new daily highs; in bear markets like 2022, daily volatility compressed. The 0% probability reading reflects either extreme confidence in a specific price level or thin liquidity in this particular contract, making it worth checking order book depth before committing capital.

Traders monitoring this contract should track macroeconomic data releases scheduled for May 2026, particularly US inflation reports and Federal Reserve communications, which historically drive Bitcoin volatility. Regulatory announcements from major jurisdictions—especially the UK's FCA or EU frameworks—can trigger sharp intraday moves. On-chain metrics like exchange inflows and whale wallet activity in the weeks preceding 24 May will signal whether large holders expect significant price movement, providing early signals for position sizing.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.