What price will Bitcoin hit on June 6?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's price action on 6 June 2026 will determine settlement of this contract, with traders on Polymarket currently pricing the YES outcome at 0%, indicating the crowd expects no realistic scenario where Bitcoin reaches whatever threshold this market specifies. The contract settles against the spot price recorded on that date, with payouts executed in USDC on Polygon once the settlement window closes on 7 June at 04:00 UTC. A 0% crowd probability suggests either the target price is far outside consensus expectations or the market has already priced in extreme conviction about Bitcoin's trajectory by mid-2026.

Historical precedent shows Bitcoin's annual volatility typically ranges between 40–80%, yet single-day moves exceeding 10% occur roughly once per quarter during normal market conditions. The 2021 bull run saw Bitcoin reach $69,000 before the 2022 bear market compressed it below $16,500; recovery to $43,000 by early 2024 demonstrated multi-year price discovery remains possible. If this market's threshold sits significantly above current levels, the 0% probability reflects rational scepticism about achieving such gains within a defined 24-hour window rather than over months.

Traders monitoring this contract should track macroeconomic announcements scheduled for early June 2026, including any Federal Reserve communications or inflation data releases that historically trigger volatility spikes. Regulatory developments—particularly any major jurisdiction announcements on Bitcoin classification or custody rules—could shift conviction rapidly. On-chain metrics like exchange inflows and whale accumulation patterns in the weeks preceding settlement will signal whether institutional positioning supports a directional move sufficient to move the needle on this contract's outcome.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.