What price will Bitcoin hit on May 20?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin has traded mostly in the mid-$70,000s today, and this Polymarket contract is pricing the May 20 close through USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens, with the market now showing 0% YES. For users, that means the contract is effectively saying the relevant settlement level is already being treated as out of reach unless BTC can move sharply before the window closes at 04:00 UTC on 21 May. Recent spot prints around $76,500 underline how tight the margin is between the current level and the round-number bands that dominate this market.

That sort of pricing is easier to read against the recent range than against long-term forecasts. BTC has spent weeks failing to reclaim the $80,000 area, while 24/7 Wall St noted the 200-day moving average near $82,228 as the key resistance and said clearing $80,000 would be the first meaningful trend reversal signal this year. Fortune reported Bitcoin at $76,565.02 on 19 May, which leaves the contract’s reference level close to the current market but still below the thresholds that usually attract the most liquidity. Comparable Polymarket BTC events have also tended to cluster around neat strikes such as $75,000, $80,000 and $90,000, where traders concentrate on round-number probabilities rather than fine-grained price differences.

The main catalysts are the usual intraday drivers: any large US session move, ETF flow headlines, and whether spot can push back through the $77,000 to $80,000 zone before expiry. Strategy’s earnings and any update on Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin buying cadence remain a secondary watchpoint, because treasury demand can affect sentiment at the margin. On the venue side, the contract is settled from the CF Benchmarks real-time index, so traders need to watch the price at the settlement cut-off rather than any exchange close.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track What price will Bitcoin hit on May 20? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.