What price will Bitcoin hit on May 31?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's price on 31 May 2026 remains unresolved, with Polymarket's conditional token pair currently pricing the YES side at zero. The settlement window closes on 1 June 2026, meaning traders are betting on where the spot price will land across major exchanges during that final day of May. On Polygon, USDC-denominated conditional tokens track this outcome; the market's structure requires resolution against a specified price feed, likely a volume-weighted average or exchange composite, though the exact methodology determines edge for informed traders.

Historical Bitcoin price movements over comparable five-month windows show volatility clustering around macroeconomic shifts and regulatory announcements. The 2021–2022 bear market saw Bitcoin fall from $69,000 to $16,500 across similar timeframes, whilst the 2023 recovery from $16,500 to $42,000 occurred over roughly four months. Current probability of zero reflects either extreme uncertainty about the settlement mechanism or consensus that the market's definition excludes realistic price targets. Traders should verify whether the contract specifies a particular exchange, time zone, or aggregation method before committing capital.

Key catalysts through May 2026 include US Federal Reserve policy decisions, spot Bitcoin ETF flows, and any major regulatory announcements from the SEC or international bodies. Bitcoin's correlation with equity markets and Treasury yields remains material; rate expectations will shape directional bias. Recent institutional adoption trends and mining difficulty adjustments also influence supply-side dynamics. Traders monitoring on-chain metrics—transaction volumes, whale movements, and exchange inflows—may identify price pressure signals ahead of the settlement date.

Methodology

We track What price will Bitcoin hit on May 31? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.