Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO5) - DreamLeague Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

PARIVISION face Aurora in the DreamLeague Playoffs grand final, a best-of-five Dota 2 match scheduled for 24 May at 10:00 AM ET. The conditional token contract on Polymarket currently prices PARIVISION's victory at 3%, reflecting substantial confidence in Aurora as favourites. This represents a 32-to-1 implied odds against PARIVISION, with USDC settlement on Polygon once the match concludes and result verification completes.

DreamLeague grand finals historically favour teams that have demonstrated consistency through the tournament bracket. Aurora's path to the final, combined with their recent LAN performance metrics, explains the pronounced probability skew. PARIVISION's 3% valuation sits below typical upset thresholds seen in comparable Dota 2 playoff matchups, where teams reaching grand finals from lower seeds occasionally command 5–8% implied probability. The extreme compression suggests market participants view this as a heavily one-sided affair rather than a competitive series.

Traders monitoring this contract should track roster confirmations and any last-minute substitutions announced before the 10:00 AM ET start time, as stand-in players have historically affected Dota 2 match outcomes. Server stability and technical delays represent secondary settlement risks; the 7-day grace period for match completion provides buffer against minor scheduling disruptions. Recent DreamLeague coverage from esports outlets typically confirms final lineups 24–48 hours before grand final play, offering a final data point before market closure.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.