WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above 2026 on June 11?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

WTI crude oil will settle on 11 June 2026 based on the closing price reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration or equivalent official source. Polymarket currently prices this contract at 0% probability of YES, meaning traders have assigned negligible likelihood to the unspecified price threshold being breached. On-chain settlement will occur via USDC on Polygon, with conditional tokens resolving according to whether the closing print exceeds the strike price. The extreme skew toward NO reflects either a strike price set well above foreseeable market conditions or a technical issue with contract visibility.

Historical WTI volatility offers context for interpreting this pricing. Between 2020 and 2024, crude traded a wide range: from negative territory during the pandemic shock to peaks above $120 per barrel following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. A 0% crowd probability suggests either the threshold sits above $150 or higher—levels last seen briefly in 2008—or the market has simply not engaged with this particular contract. Comparable Polymarket energy contracts typically show distributed probabilities unless the strike is genuinely extreme or the settlement window is imminent with price already determined.

Traders should monitor OPEC+ production decisions, U.S. inventory data releases (weekly from the EIA), and geopolitical developments in the Middle East and Russia. Seasonal demand patterns favour higher prices in summer months, though macroeconomic headwinds—recession signals, dollar strength, or demand destruction—could suppress WTI significantly. The settlement window closes 21:00 UTC on 11 June 2026, leaving roughly eighteen months for price discovery. Current liquidity and order-book depth on this contract will determine execution costs for any position.

Methodology

This page reviews WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above 2026 on June 11? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.