LoL: Supernova vs Conviction (BO3) - North American Challengers League Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Supernova and Conviction face off in the North American Challengers League playoffs upper bracket semifinal on 22 May, with the winner advancing to the grand final. The best-of-three match is scheduled for 7:00 PM ET, and Polymarket currently prices this contract at zero, indicating the market has assigned negligible probability to Supernova's victory. This extreme pricing reflects either decisive historical matchup data, roster composition advantages favouring Conviction, or limited liquidity establishing a floor rather than genuine conviction about the outcome.

The Challengers League operates as North America's secondary competitive tier, where roster volatility and inconsistent performance across series remain common. Historical precedent from similar lower-tier League of Legends competitions shows that 0% pricing typically emerges when one team has demonstrated clear superiority through regular season results or when recent roster changes have substantially altered competitive balance. Without access to the specific regular season records or recent head-to-head results between these organisations, traders should verify whether Conviction secured a higher seed or demonstrated dominant regular season performance that would justify such extreme pricing.

Traders monitoring this contract should track any roster announcements, coaching changes, or injury disclosures between now and match day, as the Challengers League occasionally experiences last-minute substitutions. The settlement window extends to 23 May at 04:00 UTC, providing a seven-day buffer for delayed matches. Given the 0% current price, any evidence of Supernova's competitive strength—scrim results, player transfers, or meta-shift advantages—could create arbitrage opportunities before the match commences.

Methodology

This page reviews LoL: Supernova vs Conviction (BO3) - North American Challengers League Playoffs across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.