Fed rate cut by 2026?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Federal Reserve would need to cut its benchmark interest rate between mid-December 2025 and the conclusion of the January 2026 FOMC meeting to trigger a "Yes" resolution on this contract. The current 1% probability on Polymarket reflects near-certainty amongst traders that no such cut materialises within this compressed six-week window. On-chain liquidity in USDC pairs suggests minimal conviction in either direction at extreme odds, typical of low-probability tail events where conditional token mechanics amplify small position sizes into outsized probability shifts.

Rate cuts during economic expansions remain historically uncommon, and the Fed has signalled a cautious stance following inflation's recent persistence. The December 2024 meeting saw the central bank hold rates steady at 4.25–4.50%, with Chair Powell emphasising data-dependence rather than pre-set cutting schedules. Emergency cuts—which would qualify under this market's terms—occur only during financial crises or acute economic shocks, a scenario not priced into baseline forecasts for late 2025.

Traders monitoring this contract should track incoming employment figures, inflation readings, and any unexpected financial stability warnings between now and the January meeting. The December jobs report, due 10 January 2026, and the PCE inflation release scheduled for 31 December will carry particular weight. A significant deterioration in either metric could theoretically prompt emergency action, though current consensus expects the Fed to maintain its holding pattern through January. The market's pricing reflects this consensus: a cut within six weeks remains a low-probability event requiring material economic deterioration or systemic stress.

Methodology

We track Fed rate cut by 2026? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.