Tunisia vs. Japan - Exact Score

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Market context

Polymarket’s **exact score** contract on Tunisia vs Japan is pricing a fairly low-probability outcome today, with the crowd implying **3% YES** for one of the listed scorelines in regulation plus stoppage time. The market settles in USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens, so the live price reflects the market’s view of the full-time score only; extra time and penalties do not count, which matters because a late equaliser or a narrow finish can still land outside the listed outcomes.

The historical frame favours Japan. Across the four recorded meetings, Japan have won three and Tunisia once, and the latest clash was a 2-0 Japan victory in October 2023.[1][8] Recent World Cup form also points in Japan’s direction: Reuters reported Japan drew 2-2 with the Netherlands in their opener, while Tunisia were beaten 5-1 by Sweden.[5] That combination helps explain why the market assigns a small price to a specific Tunisia scoreline rather than to the broader match result.

For traders, the main catalysts are team news, line-up rotation and match context in Group F. FIFA lists the kick-off for 21 June and describes Japan as “a more confident team”, while Reuters notes the fixture marks the 1,000th World Cup match and highlights the contrasting opening results.[4][5] On Polymarket, the practical watchpoints are any late injury updates, confirmed starting XIs and whether either side must chase goal difference, because those factors can shift the probability of exact scores far more sharply than the win-draw-loss market.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.