Will Anthropic’s valuation hit 2027 by December 31?

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Market context

Anthropic’s private valuation would need to hit the listed level in Nasdaq Private Market’s daily NPM Price data by 31 December 2026 for this market to settle yes, and Polymarket is currently pricing that outcome at about 12% on its USDC-settled, Polygon-based conditional tokens. That is a low bar only in the sense that the contract is binary: a single published NPM print at or above the threshold is enough, while any move that falls short leaves holders of yes shares out of the money. Because NPM prices are only published on trading days and arrive with a one-day lag, the settlement mechanics matter as much as the headline valuation.

The recent reference point is Anthropic’s Series G, which the company said in May 2026 priced it at $380 billion post-money after a $30 billion raise. That is well above earlier 2025 marks cited in the market, but still far below the levels that would make this contract pay out. Comparable private-company re-ratings tend to come in steps rather than smoothly, so traders usually read these markets through funding cadence, secondary demand and any revised venture terms rather than through day-to-day sentiment alone. A 12% yes price implies the market expects a sharp repricing is possible, but not the base case.

Watch for any further financing talk, updated NPM prints, and whether Anthropic’s own disclosures or major investor reports point to a new transaction before year-end. Sacra has reported early talks for a raise above $900 billion as of May 2026, while Bloomberg recently said the company was seeking at least $30 billion in fresh financing at more than $900 billion, which would be the clearest catalyst for a yes resolution if confirmed. The settlement window runs past year-end because the contract can stay open until 4 January 2027 if NPM data for all business dates are not yet published.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.