Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Felix Gill and Hugo Gaston are scheduled to meet in the Nottingham 2 tennis tournament on 15 June 2026. The Polymarket conditional token for Gill's advancement is currently trading at 100% implied probability on Polygon, meaning the market has priced in either near-certainty of his progression or reflects extremely thin liquidity and one-sided positioning. At settlement, USDC collateral backs whichever outcome resolves true, with the contract expiring 22 June 2026—allowing a seven-day buffer for delays or rescheduling before triggering the 50-50 tie-break clause.

Nottingham grass-court tournaments historically favour established players with serve-dominant games, particularly in early rounds where seeding advantages compound. Gill, a British prospect, would likely carry home-court support if ranked higher or seeded; Gaston, a French player, has shown inconsistency at Challenger level despite occasional ATP main-draw appearances. The 100% price suggests either Gill is substantially favoured by the market's assessment of relative ranking and form, or the contract has attracted minimal trading volume and reflects an early, uncontested position rather than genuine consensus.

Traders should monitor official ATP Challenger Tour draws and any late withdrawals or injury announcements through the ATP website in the week before 15 June. Weather disruptions at Nottingham could trigger the delay clause. Seeding confirmation and recent head-to-head records, if any exist, will clarify whether the current pricing reflects genuine dominance or simply reflects a lack of competing orders on the Polygon chain.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.