Colombia vs. Costa Rica

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Market context

Colombia and Costa Rica are scheduled to meet in a FIFA International Friendly on Monday, 1 June 2026. The match will take place during a fixture window allocated by FIFA for national team preparation, likely ahead of Copa América or World Cup qualifying commitments. Polymarket currently prices this contract at 100% YES, reflecting settlement on the condition that the match occurs as scheduled. On-chain, traders hold conditional tokens denominated in USDC on Polygon, with resolution tied to whether the fixture is played by the settlement deadline of 1 June 2026 at 23:00 UTC.

International friendlies between established CONMEBOL and CONCACAF nations carry a strong historical completion rate. Colombia and Costa Rica have faced each other multiple times in competitive and friendly contexts without cancellation, and neither federation has a recent pattern of withdrawing from scheduled matches during FIFA windows. The 2026 calendar places this fixture during a standard preparation period, reducing logistical friction compared to matches scheduled during club seasons or amid geopolitical disruption.

The primary catalyst for non-settlement would be injury crises, administrative disputes, or force majeure affecting either federation's travel or squad availability. As of late 2025, no public announcements from the Colombian or Costa Rican football associations indicate fixture changes. Traders should monitor official CONMEBOL and CONCACAF communications in May 2026, particularly squad announcements and any last-minute scheduling adjustments. The 100% probability reflects the baseline expectation that two established nations will honour a friendly fixture during a designated international window.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.