Sporting Kansas City vs. New York Red Bulls

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Sporting Kansas City will host New York Red Bulls on Saturday, 23 May 2026 in an MLS regular-season fixture. The Polymarket contract currently prices a Sporting Kansas City victory at 47% (YES tokens trading around 0.47 USDC on Polygon), implying roughly 53% probability assigned to either a draw or Red Bulls win combined. Settlement occurs after the final whistle, with conditional tokens redeemable against USDC reserves once the result is confirmed on-chain.

Historically, these clubs have produced competitive matches with modest home advantage effects. Sporting Kansas City's Childrens Mercy Park typically yields a 55–60% win rate for the hosts across MLS seasons, though Red Bulls have shown resilience in away fixtures, particularly under stable coaching regimes. The current 47% YES probability sits below typical home-team pricing in MLS prediction markets, suggesting traders are factoring either recent form deterioration for Kansas City or elevated confidence in New York's travelling strength. Comparable May fixtures between these sides have often settled near 50–52% for the home team, making today's pricing notably compressed.

Traders should monitor team news through mid-May, particularly injury updates to key attacking or defensive personnel. MLS fixture congestion—with potential cup commitments or international breaks affecting squad rotation—can shift availability unexpectedly. Weather conditions at Childrens Mercy Park on match day may also influence play style, though historical data shows minimal settlement volatility from meteorological factors alone. Official MLS communications and club social media will signal any late squad changes before the 00:30 UTC settlement window closes on 24 May.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.