Iran ceasefire continues through?

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Market context

Polymarket is pricing this ceasefire contract at 98% YES, so the market is treating the US-Iran truce as effectively intact on the on-chain position now. On Polymarket, that means USDC-backed conditional tokens on Polygon are still overwhelmingly aligned with a continuation outcome, with very little value assigned to a qualifying US strike on Iranian soil before the deadline. The practical question is not whether tensions remain, but whether there is a clear public confirmation of renewed kinetic action that would trigger a No.

That sort of pricing sits alongside recent precedent: markets tend to mark up ceasefires sharply once direct airstrikes stop, but they still leave a sliver of risk for sudden escalation, reporting gaps, or an official repudiation. Reuters has reported that the current arrangement is thin and contingent, with the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions, and wider regional spillovers left for later talks. That is why a 98% print should be read as a strong view on the truce holding to date, not as evidence of a settled political deal.

For traders, the key catalysts are formal statements from Washington, corroborated reporting of any US kinetic action in Iran, and the timing of any scheduled follow-up negotiations. The contract’s resolution standard is event-driven: if the US government confirms a strike, or credible reporting reaches consensus within the required window, the market flips to No. Absent that, attention stays on ceasefire enforcement, maritime access through Hormuz, and whether any new escalation appears in official briefings or live coverage.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Iran ceasefire continues through? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.