What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket's conditional tokens on Polygon are pricing a 36% probability that the Trump administration will accept Iran's continued uranium enrichment by end-May 2026. The market hinges on whether any bilateral agreement—whether comprehensive or limited in scope—explicitly permits Iran to enrich uranium going forward, regardless of enrichment levels or inspection regimes attached to such terms. The USDC settlement mechanism means traders are betting on observable diplomatic outcomes rather than interpretive judgements about intent.

Historical precedent suggests the bar for US acceptance remains high. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action permitted Iranian enrichment under strict International Atomic Energy Agency monitoring and technical caps, yet the Trump administration withdrew in 2018 and reimposed sanctions. The Biden administration pursued a return to similar terms throughout 2021–2022 without success. Current geopolitical conditions—including regional tensions, Israeli security concerns, and Republican congressional opposition to Iran deals—create structural headwinds against formal recognition of enrichment rights. No sitting US administration since 1979 has voluntarily codified Iranian enrichment without negotiating significant constraints.

Traders should monitor three catalysts through May 2026: direct US-Iran diplomatic channels (currently dormant), any UN Security Council resolutions affecting sanctions architecture, and statements from Trump's State Department on nuclear negotiations. Reuters reported in January 2025 that Trump's team signalled openness to talks, though without preconditions on enrichment. The 36% probability reflects genuine uncertainty about negotiating posture, but the historical record of failed talks and structural opposition suggests the market may be pricing optimism about diplomatic breakthrough at a modest premium.

Methodology

We track What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.