How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?

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Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Strait of Hormuz shipping contract at 6% YES, with USDC on Polygon backing the conditional tokens that settle against IMF Portwatch transit counts for 11–17 May. The market is therefore saying a sharp, sustained recovery in reported traffic is still a low-probability outcome, even though the conflict-driven shock has already pushed the strait far below normal throughput.

For context, IMF Portwatch and industry trackers have been showing a prolonged collapse in movements since the fighting escalated in March. UANI said on 11 May that traffic remained far below pre-conflict levels, while USNI reported on 1 May that transits were at their lowest level since Operation Epic Fury and under 10% of pre-conflict volumes. That means the threshold for a bullish resolution is not “improving sentiment” but a material increase in reported calls across all seven days of the window.

The main catalysts are operational rather than political: any ceasefire durability, vessel-owner routing decisions, and whether insurers and charterers are willing to price the risk back in. Recent reporting has also pointed to alternative loading patterns, with Saudi cargoes shifting towards Yanbu and some operators continuing to avoid the Middle East Gulf altogether. Traders watching the tape should focus on daily Portwatch updates, carrier advisories, and any formal security or shipping notices that could change whether vessels resume transits in time to affect the week’s total.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.