# of views of MrBeast video day 2?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

MrBeast's latest YouTube upload will accumulate views across its opening 48 hours, with Polymarket pricing this contract at 0% implied probability for the YES outcome. The settlement hinges on YouTube's public view counter at the precise moment the two-day window closes, with resolution brackets determining which range the final figure falls into. On-chain conditional tokens denominated in USDC sit on Polygon, meaning traders holding NO positions currently reflect confidence that the video will underperform whichever threshold defines the lowest bracket.

Historical context matters here: MrBeast's recent releases have consistently exceeded 50 million views within 48 hours, with several videos surpassing 100 million in that window. His December 2024 "Squid Game" recreation video reached approximately 75 million views in two days, whilst earlier high-profile uploads regularly cleared 60 million. The 0% pricing suggests the market has set an exceptionally high bar for YES resolution—likely a bracket starting well above 100 million views—making the current odds reflect genuine scepticism about whether even MrBeast's typical performance meets that threshold.

Traders should monitor MrBeast's upload schedule and any promotional announcements across his social channels, as release timing and pre-launch hype directly influence early velocity. YouTube's algorithm changes and platform engagement patterns fluctuate seasonally; the June 2026 settlement window falls outside major holiday periods when view counts typically spike. Technical dependencies include YouTube's view-counting accuracy and any potential platform outages during the critical 48-hour measurement period.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.