"The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office

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Active sub-markets

Market context

With Polymarket pricing this contract at 67% YES, traders are effectively marking up a domestic four-day opening for the film to land in the higher box office brackets, not just clear the low end. On the Polygon chain, those YES and NO conditional tokens settle in USDC against The Numbers’ final “Daily Box Office Performance” figures for May 22 to May 25, so the market is really a bet on where the final reported total sits once studio estimates are stripped out.

The current pricing sits between a cautious and a bullish read of the franchise’s box office history. Lucasfilm’s recent live-action releases have shown how sensitive Star Wars openings are to reception and audience urgency: mixed word-of-mouth can compress the front-end, while nostalgia and family attendance can still produce a strong holiday lift. That matters here because four-day Memorial Day openings often overperform the ordinary three-day frame, but they can also disappoint if the audience skews older or if reviews undercut repeat and walk-up demand. Comparable release patterns show that a headline tracking number is rarely enough; the settlement outcome depends on how much is actually spent in theatres over the holiday window, not just pre-release hype.

For traders, the key catalysts are the final trade tracking revisions, any last-minute studio guidance, and the published daily grosses across the four-day window. Deadline reported a wide range in tracking, with some estimates around a $160 million global opening while domestic expectations were cited nearer $65–75 million for the three-day and roughly $80 million for the four-day frame, underscoring how much the market can move if family turnout beats or misses expectations. Once Friday-through-Monday figures hit The Numbers and become final, the conditional tokens will resolve to the bracket matching that reported domestic total.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.