US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket’s contract for a US-Iran nuclear deal by 31 May is trading at 14% YES, with positions settled in USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens. In plain terms, the market is asking whether Washington and Tehran will publicly announce a mutual agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme before the deadline; if not, the token resolves to No. At this level, the market is pricing a low-probability diplomatic breakthrough rather than a signed framework, which usually needs clear text, named signatories and an official announcement before the window closes.

Historically, Iran nuclear diplomacy has tended to move in fits and starts rather than on a straight line. The 2015 JCPOA took months of talks, interim understandings and technical concessions before a final deal emerged, while more recent negotiations in 2025–26 have repeatedly produced mixed signals, with reports of draft parameters, ceasefire linkages and inspection demands, but no durable agreement. That history matters for pricing: a contract like this often sits in the low teens unless both sides have already converged on enrichment limits, IAEA access and sanctions relief, because last-minute political objections can still stop a deal after negotiators signal progress.

The immediate catalysts are official statements from the White House, Iran’s foreign ministry and any scheduled round of talks, especially if mediators such as Oman or Pakistan are involved. Reuters and other outlets have reported in recent months that talks have centred on enrichment caps, stockpile handling and inspection access, with Washington also linking any accord to broader regional de-escalation. Traders should also watch for changes in the status of IAEA access, sanctions waivers, or any public confirmation that a final text is being circulated, since a market on conditional tokens only cares about a public, official agreement before the resolution deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.