Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

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Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains the world's most critical maritime chokepoint, with roughly one-fifth of global oil passing through its 21-nautical-mile width daily. Polymarket currently prices the prospect of a single day exceeding the specified transit threshold at 10% YES, implying traders assess a low likelihood of the Strait seeing that volume on any given date through May 2026. The contract settles via IMF Portwatch data—the authoritative source for daily arrival counts across container, tanker, bulk, and general cargo vessels—meaning settlement hinges on published figures rather than geopolitical interpretation.

Historical transit volumes through Hormuz average 80–100 daily arrivals under normal conditions, though this figure fluctuates with seasonal demand, maintenance schedules at regional ports, and broader shipping cycles. The 10% pricing suggests the threshold specified is substantially above baseline traffic, placing it in the realm of surge scenarios rather than routine operations. Previous disruptions—including the 2022 Houthi incidents and 2020 tensions—produced temporary volatility but rarely sustained multi-day elevation in transit counts, as vessels typically reroute rather than queue.

Traders should monitor Iranian sanctions policy, particularly any announcements affecting oil export capacity, and watch for scheduled maintenance at the Strait's chokepoint facilities. Shipping indices and tanker utilisation rates published by maritime data providers offer leading indicators of demand pressure. Recent reports from Lloyd's List and Splash247 track regional port congestion and vessel positioning; sustained congestion upstream could theoretically force a compression of transits into fewer days, though this remains a secondary driver relative to geopolitical risk.

Methodology

This page reviews Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.