"Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Paramount's sixth instalment in the Scary Movie franchise opens domestically on 5–7 June 2026, with settlement contingent on final box office figures from The Numbers rather than studio estimates. The market currently prices YES at 0%, reflecting substantial uncertainty around whether this legacy comedy-horror series can generate meaningful opening weekend revenue in a crowded summer slate. Traders are essentially pricing in either a theatrical release that underperforms dramatically or a decision to skip theatrical distribution entirely.

The Scary Movie franchise has experienced significant commercial decline over two decades. The original 2000 film grossed $278 million globally; by Scary Movie 5 (2013), domestic opening weekend fell to $15.1 million. The gap between the franchise's peak and recent instalments illustrates how parody-driven comedies struggle to maintain audience appetite, particularly when the films being satirised have themselves shifted in cultural prominence. Horror-comedy hybrids remain viable—A Quiet Place Day One opened to $28.2 million domestically in June 2024—yet the Scary Movie brand specifically carries baggage from diminishing returns across its last three releases.

Key variables include whether Paramount commits to wide theatrical distribution or opts for a limited release, and the competitive landscape of June 2026 blockbuster releases. Studio announcements regarding screen count and marketing spend will materialise closer to the settlement window. The franchise's performance on streaming platforms since 2013 may also influence Paramount's distribution strategy. Traders should monitor entertainment trade publications for release strategy confirmation and any last-minute scheduling shifts that could affect opening weekend performance.

Methodology

We track "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.