# of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

MrBeast’s next long-form YouTube upload has to deliver its first seven-day view total before this market pays out, and Polymarket currently has it at 0% for the higher brackets, leaving the contract pricing only the lowest outcomes. As a user, you are holding conditional tokens on Polygon and the position will settle in USDC once the channel’s public views counter is checked against the bracketed range at the end of the week. The key point is that the market is about the next qualifying video only: shorts, teasers and any unrelated uploads do not count, and if the next video never arrives by the deadline the contract drops to the floor bracket.

That near-zero pricing reflects how high the bar has become for MrBeast’s week-one numbers, even after repeated nine-figure launches. His channel still routinely clears tens of millions of views in days, but the market is asking whether the next upload can reach a very specific range, not simply whether it will be a hit. Recent Lines.com markets on his day-one and week-one view totals have shown the same pattern: traders have clustered around the most recent performance band rather than assuming another breakout. MrBeast’s scale also means bracket choice matters; if the final count lands exactly on a boundary, the higher range wins, which is relevant in tightly priced markets.

What matters now is timing and format. A published upload schedule, any mention of a “next video”, and whether the video is part of a major stunt or collaboration are the main catalysts for repricing. Viewstats’ public projections still show MrBeast as one of the largest channels on YouTube, but prediction-market attention will turn first to the upload itself and then to early distribution signals in the first 24 hours, because that often sets the pace for the seven-day total. If the channel stays inactive into late June, the settlement rule becomes the dominant factor rather than audience demand.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.