Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tiger Woods, the professional golfer, has no known federal criminal convictions that would make him eligible for a presidential pardon. The market currently prices at 1% on Polymarket, reflecting the extremely low probability that Woods would receive such clemency by mid-2026. Trading this contract on Polygon involves conditional tokens backed by USDC, with settlement tied to official US government records or credible reporting of a pardon, commutation, or reprieve issued by Donald Trump.

Presidential pardons typically address individuals convicted of federal crimes or facing federal prosecution. Woods was arrested for driving under the influence in Florida in 2017, but that charge was handled under state law and resulted in a plea agreement and probation rather than conviction. No federal charges have ever been filed against him. Historical precedent shows Trump has issued pardons to political allies, family members, and individuals with high-profile legal exposure—not to celebrities without federal criminal liability. The 1% probability reflects the absence of any plausible legal mechanism for such a pardon.

Traders monitoring this contract should watch for any unexpected federal indictment against Woods, which remains the only realistic catalyst that could shift pricing materially. No scheduled announcements or public statements from Trump's team suggest any consideration of Woods for clemency. The market's pricing effectively reflects that this outcome requires an unprecedented departure from how presidential pardons function, making it a tail-risk bet rather than a reflection of genuine political momentum.

Methodology

This page reviews Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.