Any departure from Tehran (IKA) by 2026?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket prices this contract at 100% YES, reflecting near-certainty that at least one aircraft will depart Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA) before the 1 July 2026 deadline. The market settles on actual takeoff time recorded by FlightAware or Iranian aviation authorities, not gate pushback or reopening announcements alone. At current odds, conditional YES tokens trade at parity with USDC on Polygon, leaving minimal margin for a NO resolution.

IKA has operated intermittently since its 2004 opening, with previous closures spanning weeks to months following regional tensions and sanctions escalations. The airport typically resumes operations within 30–90 days of disruption, as demonstrated after the January 2020 ballistic missile strikes and subsequent February 2022 capacity reductions. The 18-month settlement window substantially exceeds historical downtime patterns, which supports the crowd's confidence in at least one departure occurring.

Near-term catalysts centre on Iranian Civil Aviation Organisation scheduling announcements and sanctions policy shifts affecting fuel availability and aircraft positioning. Recent reporting from Reuters (March 2024) indicated IKA maintained limited cargo operations despite regional instability, suggesting operational resilience. Traders should monitor SWIFT banking restrictions, which directly constrain fuel procurement, and any formal reopening declarations from Tehran's aviation authority. The resolution hinges on FlightAware's tracking data; gaps in ADS-B coverage or transponder outages could complicate verification, though Iranian government filings serve as secondary confirmation sources.

Methodology

We track Any departure from Tehran (IKA) by 2026? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.