US-Iran deal text released by 2026?

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Market context

On 14 June 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, with a signing ceremony scheduled for 19 June. The market resolves YES if any portion of the agreement text becomes widely available to the public by 1 July 2026, 23:59 ET. Currently priced at 90% on Polygon, this contract reflects strong market conviction that at least some textual disclosure will occur within the thirteen-day window following the signing date.

Historical precedent suggests high disclosure likelihood. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015 saw full text publication within days of finalisation, whilst the Iran nuclear deal framework agreement text was released publicly before formal signing. Even contentious US-China trade agreements under the Trump administration saw full disclosure within weeks. Governments typically release agreement texts to satisfy domestic legislative scrutiny, international media demand, and treaty ratification processes. The only scenarios favouring non-disclosure would involve extraordinary classification claims or a complete breakdown of the announced agreement before 1 July—outcomes the 90% pricing already discounts heavily.

Traders should monitor State Department and Iranian Foreign Ministry announcements for any release schedule statements. The 19 June signing ceremony itself represents the primary catalyst; formal signings typically precede public text release by hours or days rather than weeks. Secondary catalysts include congressional notification requirements, which often trigger simultaneous public disclosure, and any statements from European signatories if multilateral participation emerges. News coverage from Reuters, AP, and BBC will signal whether text portions appear in reporting, which satisfies the "widely available" resolution criterion even without official government publication.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.