Iran ceasefire continues through?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The ceasefire between the United States and Iran remains untested since its implementation, with Polymarket pricing this contract at 100% YES across the conditional token pairs on Polygon. This reflects near-complete market confidence that no kinetic US military action will occur on Iranian soil before the resolution date. The USDC liquidity pools show minimal trading volume at these extremes, typical when traders perceive negligible tail risk. Any shift in probability would require credible reporting of an actual US strike, with official US government confirmation or overwhelming consensus from major news outlets required within 24 hours to trigger resolution conditions.

Historical precedent suggests sustained ceasefires between these parties remain fragile. The 2020 assassination of Qasem Soleimani by US drone strike, followed by Iranian ballistic missile strikes on US bases in Iraq, demonstrated how rapidly escalation cycles can develop. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) collapse and subsequent years of tit-for-tat incidents—including alleged Iranian drone attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure and US sanctions campaigns—established patterns where both sides maintain deniability whilst testing boundaries. Yet the current ceasefire's 100% pricing suggests traders view the diplomatic framework as holding.

Traders should monitor statements from the US State Department and Pentagon regarding Iranian military activity, particularly any cross-border incidents in Iraq or Syria where US forces operate. Regional developments involving Israeli-Iranian tensions, Houthi attacks on shipping, or Iraqi militia actions could create pressure points. Reuters and AP reporting on any alleged Iranian provocations would likely move markets sharply, though the resolution criteria require explicit kinetic action on Iranian territory rather than proxy activities.

Methodology

We track Iran ceasefire continues through? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.