Starmer out by...?

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Market context

Keir Starmer has served as Prime Minister since Labour's election victory in July 2024. This market prices the probability that he ceases to hold that office at any point between 2 February and 31 December 2025, whether through resignation, removal, or any other mechanism. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket reflects traders' assessment that such an exit remains extraordinarily unlikely within this timeframe, with conditional tokens on Polygon currently pricing near-zero YES positions in USDC terms.

UK Prime Ministers typically serve multi-year terms absent major political crises. Margaret Thatcher lasted eleven years before backbench pressure forced her out in 1990; Tony Blair served ten years before planned departure; Boris Johnson faced sustained backbench rebellion over partygate before resigning in September 2022 after forty-nine days. Liz Truss holds the record for shortest tenure at forty-nine days, driven by economic turmoil and rapid loss of parliamentary confidence. Starmer commands a substantial 412-seat majority in the Commons, materially different from Johnson's precarious position, suggesting the historical baseline for involuntary removal remains low absent extraordinary circumstances.

Traders should monitor Labour backbench sentiment, particularly around cost-of-living measures and public sector strikes scheduled through 2025. The fiscal landscape following the autumn 2024 Budget will shape parliamentary dynamics; any major policy reversal or sustained polling collapse below 20% would signal shifting removal risk. Announcements regarding his health or family circumstances could trigger sudden reassessment. The next general election is scheduled for 2029, making mid-term departure structurally unlikely unless internal party dynamics shift dramatically from current conditions.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.