US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The market is pricing a 78% likelihood that the United States will publicly announce an extension of its ceasefire with Iran, or a new diplomatic framework preserving that ceasefire, before the specified deadline. On Polymarket, YES tokens trade at approximately 0.78 USDC, reflecting strong conviction amongst traders that such an announcement materialises. The conditional token structure means traders holding YES positions gain full value only upon official U.S. announcement; interim developments or private diplomatic progress do not trigger resolution.

Historical precedent suggests caution around Iran negotiations. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) took years of shuttle diplomacy before announcement, whilst the Trump administration's 2018 withdrawal demonstrated how quickly such frameworks can collapse. The current ceasefire, underpinned by Oman-mediated talks and tacit understandings rather than formal treaties, operates in a more fragile context. Previous extensions of Iran-related agreements have typically required sustained high-level engagement and regional stability; the probability reflects trader assessment that such conditions currently exist, though historical patterns show reversals remain common.

Traders should monitor several catalysts: statements from the U.S. State Department or White House regarding Iran policy, any escalatory incidents in the Persian Gulf or via proxy forces that might derail talks, and scheduling of diplomatic meetings between American and Iranian representatives. Recent reporting from Reuters and Bloomberg has indicated ongoing backchannel discussions, though no formal announcement framework has been publicly established. The resolution mechanism requires explicit official announcement rather than tacit continuation, meaning traders must distinguish between de facto ceasefire maintenance and the formal declaration this market demands.

Methodology

We track US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.