Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this conditional token at **42% YES** for Daniel Altmaier, which means the contract is trading as a clear underdog call on Altmaier advancing on Polygon with USDC settlement. With the market set to resolve on whether Altmaier or Daniil Medvedev advances, the live price is effectively a snapshot of where traders think the grass-court matchup will land, not a forecast of who plays better in the abstract.

The historical read leans towards Medvedev. In Halle last year, he beat Altmaier **6-3, 6-3** in their grass-court meeting, a clean result that still matters because it shows the Russian can control this matchup on the surface.[1] Current match listings also show Medvedev as the projected winner at around **83%**, while TennisLive’s form panel points to Altmaier’s mixed recent run and Medvedev’s steadier profile, which helps explain why the market is not giving Altmaier a majority despite playing on German grass.[2][4]

For traders, the key catalysts are straightforward: final draw status, any late withdrawal, and whether the match is actually completed before the settlement window closes. Tennis.com and SofaScore both listed the quarter-final pairing for 19 June 2026, but any change to schedule, postponement, or a match interruption could affect how the conditional token settles under Polymarket’s rules.[2][5] If the match is not played at all, ends level, or drifts beyond seven days without a winner, the market goes to **50-50**; if play starts and one player is later awarded the advance, that result should still determine settlement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.