Bordeaux: Arthur Rinderknech vs Martin Damm

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Arthur Rinderknech and Martin Damm are scheduled to meet in a professional tennis match at Bordeaux on 14 May 2026. The Polymarket contract currently prices Rinderknech's advancement at 0%, reflecting either extreme confidence in Damm or minimal liquidity and trading activity on this particular fixture. Settlement occurs at 17:00 UTC on 21 May 2026, allowing a seven-day window for the match to conclude; any cancellation, tie, or delay beyond that threshold triggers a 50-50 resolution.

Rinderknech, a French left-hander ranked in the ATP's mid-tier, has shown inconsistent form across clay and hard courts, with notable first-round exits at major tournaments offset by occasional deep runs at smaller events. Damm, a Czech player with similar ranking volatility, presents a competitive matchup rather than a heavily favoured scenario. The 0% probability assigned to Rinderknech suggests either a data error, illiquidity preventing realistic pricing, or information asymmetry regarding player availability—neither player's recent injury status nor withdrawal patterns are reflected in current market depth.

Traders should monitor ATP official announcements regarding player withdrawals or schedule changes in the week preceding the match. Bordeaux typically hosts the ATP 250 event in May; confirmation of both players' participation and seeding will clarify whether the fixture actually materialises. Recent form updates, particularly any illness or injury disclosures, could shift conditional token valuations substantially once trading volume increases. The settlement window's seven-day buffer provides protection against minor delays but not against outright cancellations.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.