Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Vici Gaming face Team Falcons in a best-of-three Dota 2 match within DreamLeague's Group A stage, scheduled for 15 May at 06:00 ET. The Polymarket contract currently shows 0% implied probability for a Vici Gaming victory, reflecting either extreme confidence in Falcons or, more likely, illiquidity and minimal trading activity on this specific matchup. Settlement occurs at 16:00 UTC on 15 May, with conditional tokens on Polygon tracking the outcome through USDC collateral.

The 0% pricing warrants scrutiny given historical DreamLeague Group A fixtures rarely produce such lopsided pre-match assessments. Vici Gaming, a Chinese organisation with multiple International appearances, typically commands meaningful odds even against strong opponents. Team Falcons, the Saudi-backed squad, has shown competitive results in recent Valve-sponsored events but remains less established than Vici in tier-one Dota 2. The extreme probability likely reflects low liquidity rather than analytical consensus—few traders may have positioned in this contract yet.

Traders should monitor official DreamLeague scheduling confirmations and any roster changes or stand-in announcements from either organisation in the days preceding the match. Recent ESL and PGL tournaments have seen occasional scheduling shifts or technical delays affecting Dota 2 fixtures. The 7-day delay clause in the resolution criteria creates a tail risk if the match is postponed beyond 22 May without completion, triggering a 50-50 split. Confirmation of the match proceeding as scheduled and any last-minute lineup adjustments will be critical catalysts for repricing.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.