Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Aston Villa will host Liverpool at Villa Park on Sunday, 17 May 2026 in what appears to be a late-season Premier League fixture. The conditional YES token on Polymarket currently trades at 33 cents per USDC, implying a one-in-three chance of a Villa victory. Settlement occurs at 11:30 UTC on the scheduled match date, with payouts distributed directly to winning positions held on Polygon.

Historical context suggests this probability sits below Villa's typical home-ground performance. Over the past five seasons, Villa's win rate at Villa Park against top-six opposition has ranged between 35 and 42 per cent, whilst Liverpool's away record against mid-table sides has remained consistently strong at roughly 55 per cent. The 33 per cent pricing reflects Liverpool's structural advantage as visitors, though it leaves room for Villa's home-field dynamics and recent form trajectories to shift the market.

Traders should monitor team news releases in the week preceding the match, particularly injury confirmations for key personnel on either side. Fixture congestion in May—including potential European commitments or cup finals—could affect squad rotation decisions. Recent league standings and goal-differential trends will clarify whether either side enters with momentum or fatigue. Weather conditions at Villa Park and official team sheets released 48 hours before kick-off typically trigger repricing on conditional markets, as do any late tactical announcements from either manager.

Methodology

We track Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.