Andorra vs. Iraq

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Andorra and Iraq are scheduled to meet in a FIFA International Friendly on 29 May 2026. The Polymarket contract currently prices YES at 0%, reflecting near-zero conviction that this fixture will occur as scheduled. Settlement hinges on the match taking place within the specified window; cancellation, postponement beyond the deadline, or non-appearance by either team would resolve the market to NO. On-chain, traders are exchanging conditional tokens on Polygon backed by USDC, with the YES token becoming worthless if the event fails to materialise.

Andorra's fixture history offers limited precedent for evaluating cancellation risk at this scale. The principality's national team has played sporadically in recent years, with scheduling complications arising from UEFA administrative constraints and limited stadium infrastructure. Iraq, conversely, has faced fixture disruptions tied to regional instability and travel restrictions, though international friendlies have resumed with greater regularity since 2021. Neither nation has a recent pattern of wholesale fixture abandonment, yet both carry elevated logistical friction compared to established footballing nations.

The critical catalyst remains official confirmation from FIFA and both federations. As of early 2025, neither Andorra nor Iraq has publicly announced this fixture through their respective football associations. The 16-month lead time to May 2026 permits substantial schedule revision. Traders should monitor UEFA and AFC fixture calendars for competing commitments, visa or travel advisories affecting Iraq's delegation, and any statements from the Andorran Football Federation regarding friendly match planning. Absence of fixture announcement by Q1 2026 would typically signal low probability of occurrence.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.