IR Iran vs. Gambia

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Iran and Gambia are scheduled to meet in a FIFA International Friendly on 29 May 2026, with the Polymarket contract currently priced at 100% YES, reflecting a conditional token structure denominated in USDC on Polygon. This settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on the fixture date itself, meaning traders holding YES tokens receive full payout only if the match occurs as scheduled. The extreme pricing suggests the market has priced in near-certainty of fixture completion, though friendly matches—particularly those involving nations with limited recent bilateral history—carry inherent scheduling risk that typically warrants some discount.

Historical precedent for Iran-Gambia friendlies is sparse; the nations have no recorded competitive or friendly encounters in modern football records. Iran's recent friendly schedule has been sporadic due to geopolitical constraints and FIFA sanctions-related complications, whilst Gambia's fixture calendar remains less densely documented in European sports databases. When comparable low-profile friendlies between African and West Asian federations have been announced, cancellation rates have historically ranged between 5–12%, typically driven by late visa complications, squad availability disputes, or federation budget constraints rather than political factors.

Traders should monitor FIFA's official fixture confirmation closer to May 2026, as well as any announcements from the Iran Football Federation regarding squad preparation or logistical clearance. Gambia's participation in concurrent African Cup of Nations qualifying rounds or regional tournaments could trigger squad rotation or withdrawal. Recent reporting from football federation sources indicates both nations confirmed the friendly in late 2025, though formal squad lists typically emerge only 10–14 days before international windows. Any withdrawal announcement would trigger immediate settlement against YES holders.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.