Haiti vs. Scotland - More Markets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Haiti and Scotland will face each other in a FIFA World Cup qualifier on 13 June at 9:00 PM ET. Polymarket currently prices the "More Markets" contract at 4% probability, reflecting trader conviction that additional betting markets on this fixture will not materialise before the settlement window closes on 14 June at 01:00 UTC. The contract settles YES if supplementary markets—beyond the standard match outcome, over/under, and handicap offerings—go live on Polymarket's platform during that window.

Historical precedent suggests sparse market proliferation for lower-profile international fixtures. When Polymarket has listed World Cup qualifiers involving smaller confederations, conditional token deployment has typically remained minimal, with platforms concentrating liquidity on headline matchups. Haiti's participation in qualifying rounds has historically drawn limited speculative interest relative to European or South American derbies, which tend to trigger rapid market expansion as traders seek granular betting angles. Scotland's involvement provides marginally greater draw, though not enough to shift the baseline expectation substantially.

The key catalyst is Polymarket's internal scheduling and market-creation bandwidth on the day of the match. Settlement hinges on whether the platform's operators decide to launch additional markets—such as first-goal scorer, corner totals, or card-related contracts—between kickoff and the 01:00 UTC deadline. No recent announcements from Polymarket indicate planned expansion for this fixture. The tight settlement window (roughly four hours post-match) further constrains the probability, as market creation typically requires manual review and deployment rather than automated triggering.

Methodology

We track Haiti vs. Scotland - More Markets on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.