Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Libema Open grass-court tournament in 's-Hertogenbosch will host a first-round match between Canadian Felix Auger-Aliassime and Hungarian Marton Fucsovics on 11 June 2026. Polymarket currently prices this contract at 100% YES, implying near-certainty that the match will be played and produce a decisive winner within the settlement window closing 18 June. This pricing reflects confidence that neither player will withdraw, that tournament scheduling will hold, and that no force majeure event will prevent completion.

Auger-Aliassime's career record against Fucsovics stands at 2–0, both victories arriving on hard courts. Fucsovics has won only three ATP-level matches on grass in his career, whilst Auger-Aliassime reached the Wimbledon quarter-finals in 2024 and holds a 51% grass-court win rate across his professional record. Historical precedent suggests grass-court tournaments rarely experience cancellations or extended delays; the Libema Open has operated continuously since 1990 without significant scheduling disruptions. The seven-day grace period built into the market's resolution criteria provides substantial buffer against minor weather postponements typical of Dutch June conditions.

Traders should monitor the ATP injury report through early June, particularly any updates on Auger-Aliassime's fitness following his spring schedule. Tournament draw confirmation typically arrives two weeks before play. Weather forecasts for 's-Hertogenbosch in mid-June rarely trigger cancellations, though grass courts can require brief drying periods. The 100% probability reflects the low historical incidence of first-round match cancellations at established ATP 250 events.

Methodology

We track Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.